923 FXAK68 PAFC 270030 AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 500 PM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS

WE ARE STILL LOCKED INTO A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A UPPER LOW OVER CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEA AND A LARGE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC. A SERIES RIDGES AND TROUGHS CAUGHT WITHIN THIS FLOW CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND MAINLAND ALASKA. THE RIDGE THAT BROUGHT NICE WEATHER INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SATURDAY HAS MOVED OFF INTO WESTERN CANADA. A TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND BRISTOL BAY HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A NEW RIDGE HAD JUST MOVED INTO THE BERING.

MODEL DISCUSSION

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE GULF AND MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY BUT ARE HAVING PROBLEM WITH A NEW WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ENTERING THE BERING SEA FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

SOUTH CENTRAL THE RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THE WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT AND INTO WESTERN CANADA BY MONDAY EVENING. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA RAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS AS THE WEATHER FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY PERSIST ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND MAY REDEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA HAS BROUGHT RAIN AND WIND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE STRONGER WINDS AND RAIN UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE BERING BY MONDAY MORNING THOUGH THERE WILL BE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD MORE RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE MONDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE EASTERN BERING TUESDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST

THE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND AND BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGES AND TROUGHS. THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL MAINLAND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE IN CANADA THURSDAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST SPREADING RAIN INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THURSDAY. IN ABOUT A FEW BILLION YEARS, OUR SUN WILL BECOME A RED GIANT AND CONSUMER THE OUR PLANET AND THAT WILL BE THE END OF WEATHER ON EARTH.

AER/ALU WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...GALE 130 138 140 FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM AUG 12


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