FXUS63 KLOT 302039
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
345 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2005

...DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS...

ANOTHER BLUE RIBBON DAY FROM MOTHER NATURE AFTER EARLY MORNING 
CHILL. 

FAST UPPER FLOW NEAR CANADIAN BORDER WITH NICE SPINNER OVER NE NM ON 
VAPOR PICS. WITH TIME THE SPINNER OPENS UP INTO A VORT LOBE WHICH 
COMES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW TURNS SW AS 
TROF COMES IN FROM PACIFIC AND EVENTUALLY INTO OUR AREA NEXT WEEK. 

GFS/GEM FOLLOWED ON THE LEAD VORT LOBE. NAM FOR SOME REASON HANGS IT 
UP OVER AREA WHICH MAKES NO SENSE SINCE RIDGE IS BUILDING AND HEIGHTS
RISING SO THE LOBE SHOULD DAMPEN WITH TIME, OPPOSITE OF THE NAM. OF 
COURSE THE NAM MIS ANALYZED IT AS USUAL SO THIS MAY BE THE SOURCE OF 
THE POOR FORECAST.  WILL INTRO CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY OVER AREA WITH 
THE LOBE AND INSTABILITY SHOWN ON ALL MODELS.  THIS SW FLOW WILL 
PROVIDE ANOTHER NICE ABOVE NORMAL SPELL OF TEMPS FOR A FEW DAYS.

FOR TOMORROW 850 TEMPS WARM TO 18C BY EVE BUT WITH OCT 1 SUN DO NOT 
FEEL WILL WARM ALL THE WAY UP TO 850 BUT WILL BUMP UP GOING 
FORECAST. SAME FOR MON/TUE. SUNDAY MIGHT BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH 
MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF RAIN. BUMPED UP SATURDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS 
WITH S FLOW ALL NIGHT AND INCREASING DPS.

NEXT FRONT COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT CHANCES OF 
RAIN AND AN END TO THE WARM SPELL. BUT IN MEAN TIME NEXT 4 DAYS NICE 
IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT.  

WEEELLLL! AFTER FORECASTING FOR 32 YEARS IN THE NWS, IT IS TIME TO 
RETIRE. I HAVE DRAWN MY LAST KINKY ISOBAR. I WAS NEVER EVER BORN TO 
GRID. IT HAS BEEN SIMPLY WONDERFUL. I HAVE MET AND WORKED WITH A LOT 
OF GREAT PEOPLE BOTH IN THE NWS AND FAA. THEY HAVE GIVEN ME A LOT OF 
FOND MEMORIES.

BUT FINALLY NO MORE SHIFT WORK. NO MORE LOOKING AT ALL THE MODELS 
AND SOMETIMES THINKING THE ETA(NAM) IS ON DRUGS, THE GOOFIS IS 
TORTURED AND OUT TO LUNCH, AND THE NOGOODMODEL IS REALLY THE BEST 
ONE OF THE DAY. NO MORE THINKING THE FORECAST IS SO DIFFICULT I NEED 
TO WISH MYSELF LOTS OF RUC IN GETTING THE FORECAST RIGHT. 

I CHOSE THIS TIME BEFORE THE TORMENTED CHICAGO WEATHER TURNS ITS 
USUAL DISMALIOUS ABSOLUTES IN ABOUT A MONTH. I CAN STILL LEAVE FOR 
HONOROUS CAUSES. AND BEFORE JACQUES LE PLUME COMES DOWN THE LAKE 
WITH HIS HEAVY SNOW BANDS. 

I DO NOT BELIEVE THE AMERICAN PEOPLE REALIZE HOW LUCKY THEY ARE TO 
HAVE SUCH DEDICATED FEDERAL EMPLOYEES WORKING FOR THE NWS 24/7. WITH 
DEADLY HURRICANES APPROACHING THE COAST, NWS EMPLOYEES WERE STILL 
COMING INTO WORK ALONG THE COAST TO FULFILL THEIR MISSION OF 
PROTECTING LIFE AND PROPERTY FOR THIS COUNTRY. WHILE WINDS WERE 
HITTING 145 MPH OUTSIDE THE BUILDING, THE FEDERAL NWS EMPLOYEES WERE 
STILL AT THEIR POSTS DOING THEIR JOB. AND MOPPING UP THE FLOOR TO 
PREVENT THE LEAKING RAIN WATER FROM GETTING INTO THE EQUIPMENT. 

I LEAVE MY FELLOW "DOCTORS" WITH MY FAMOUS WORDS OF INSPIRATION 
"WHEN IN DOUBT, LEAVE IT OUT" AND "IF IT DON'T SPIN, DON'T TURN IT 
IN." THE "FISH" IS PREPARING TO LEAVE THE BUILDING FOR THE LAST 
TIME. GOD BLESS BBQ.

AF

back to the Forecast Discussion Hall of Fame

All content contained herein is copyrighted by Ben Cotton unless stated otherwise. Use or reproduction of content - including images, text, and source code - without express permission of Mr. Cotton or his estate is strictly forbidden. For further details, please visit our legal page. This page last updated 01/20/08. For general inquiries, contact FunnelFiasco. Powered by Dryline Hosting.