000
FXUS63 KLOT 221937
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
237 PM CDT SUN SEP 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
231 PM CDT

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER
ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHILLY-ISH WEEKEND IS
QUICKLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA WITH MORNING RAOBS SHOWING 40-50M
HEIGHT RISES WITH FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS REBOUNDING TO AROUND 70 MONDAY AND INTO THE 70S FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK. SURFACE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN PARKED OVER EASTERN
CANADA SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SYNOPTIC GRADIENT WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED
BY THE LAKE AND RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE. BY THE END OF
THE WEEK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD RESULT IN
WINDS VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT
COOLING AND ALLOW TEMPS TO PROBABLY APPROACH IF NOT GET INTO THE 80S
BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO ARRIVE NEXT
WEEKEND.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK BLEAK IN
REGARDS TO ANY RELIEF FROM THE LONG TERM DRY SPELL/DEVELOPING
DROUGHT OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BEGIN TO
QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND BLOCKINESS
RESULTING FROM THE STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA. GIVEN
THE RAPID WEAKENING OF THIS UPPER LOW AND DRY LOW LEVELS...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST DRY TUES/TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. DID BEEF UP SKY COVER WITH AN
EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. NEXT
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROGGED TO ARRIVE
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WITH A SOMEWHAT BLOCKY PATTERN AND SOME
TENDENCY ALREADY FOR THE MODELS TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT WE MAY NEED TO FURTHER PUSH BACK PRECIP CHANCES INTO LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.

THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX IS AT 2044Z/344 PM CDT TODAY MARKING THE END
TO ANOTHER CHICAGO SUMMER. DECIDED TO TAKE A LITTLE POETIC LICENSE
TO LOOK BACK ON THE SUMMER THAT WAS...

ODE TO SUMMER 2013

YOU CAME ROARING IN WITH BLOWIN STORMS
CONTINUING SPRING RAINS WAY ABOVE NORMS
A RECORD WET FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR
DUE TO ACTIVE JET STREAM THAT SET UP QUITE NEAR

WITH JULY THE SUNNY AND DRY DAYS STARTED
SOON AFTER SPRING FLOOD WATERS DEPARTED
LACK OF RAINS SOON LED TO TALK OF DROUGHT
CAUSING MANY A FARMER TO BEGIN TO POUT

SCORCHING MID JULY HEAT & HUMIDITY FINALLY ARRIVED
BUT MANY WERE THANKFUL IT WAS NOT LONG LIVED
FOLLOWING THE HEAT CAME TWO WEEKS OF RELIEF
WITH A RECORD COLD WEEKEND LEAVING MANY IN DISBELIEF

BEHIND A COLD FRONT, STRONG NORTHERLIES BEGAN TO ROAR
RESULTING IN HUGE LAKE MICHIGAN WAVES CRASHING ASHORE
THE LAKE`S FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS ABOUND
KEPT MANY A BEACH GOER STUCK SAFELY AGROUND

AS SCHOOL BELLS BEGAN TO CHIME
THE MERCURY ONCE AGAIN BEGAN TO CLIMB
A COUPLE OF BOUTS OF NEAR RECORD HEAT
LEFT STUDENTS STICKING TO THEIR SEAT

THE TIME HAS COME TO CLOSE THE BOOKS ON SUMMER 2013
BUT THIS WEEK`S FORECAST HAS MORE WARM WEATHER TO BE SEEN
BUT FOR THE LOVERS OF SNOW AND COLD, DON`T DESPAIR
ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE FLAKES FLUTTER THROUGH THE AIR

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* ENE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE TERMINALS...WITH
VFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE. THE CEILINGS WILL
SCATTER OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO
KEEP ANY REMAINING CLOUDS OVER THE LAKE EAST OF THE
TERMINALS...VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TURN MORE EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...SLOWLY
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. LAKE INFLUENCE IS
ANTICIPATED MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING MORE
EASTERLY BY MID AFTERNOON.

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRI NGT/SAT.

RATZER

&&

.MARINE...
158 PM CDT

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
EAST TO LAKE ONTARIO BY TUESDAY...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER...THEN TURN SOUTHERLY. A SERIES OF LOWS WILL
LIFT FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES NEXT WEEK ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO FRESHEN UP AT TIMES...BUT GENERALLY DONT EXPECT
WINDS TO BE STRONGER THAN 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AROUND 20 TO
25 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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