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TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

KIRK IS NOT EXPECTED TO LIVE LONG AND PROSPER. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND A 1214 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT IT IS BECOMING ELONGATED. MAXIMUM RELIABLE WINDS IN THE ASCAT PASS WERE AROUND 45 KT SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. KIRK WILL LIKELY BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY OR DISSIPATE JUST BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 200 N MI TO ITS WEST.

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT KIRK HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING A VERY FAST 035/32. AN EVEN FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE FRONT TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 46.2N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 51.1N 30.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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